Weekly Metals Mining Rundown and Peer Table - Free Edition for Week Ending 21 Feb 2025

This past week’s metal price and top/bottom peer group movers include:

This past week’s top 40 performing metals mining stocks (out of 424) include (share price rounding errors apply, as sourced from Google Finance):

Metals mining announcements incorporated into this week’s Peer Table (resource updates, economic studies, changes in attributable project ownership) include:

• 21 Feb 2025 - Lithium hard rock developer Green Technology Metals (ASX:GT1) announced an optimized PEA for its wholly-owned flagship Seymour project in Ontario, which paves the way for a DFS and then mine development. The PEA contemplates Seymour on a standalone basis after a prior 2023 PEA also incorporated the company’s other Root project, also in Ontario. Initial capex was reduced by $10M to $172M, with an after-tax NPV8 of US$251M (based on a 5.5% spodumene product priced at $1,851/t FOB Thunder Bay, which was lower than the price assumed in 2023 PEA). GT1 trades super cheap relative to peers, at a market cap / t resource of $0.73/t LCE ($0.19/oz AuEq) - a massive 99% discount to our lithium hard rock developer peer group median of $30/t LCE (which is a substantial premium to lithium brine and clay developer medians of $2.1/t LCE and $0.84/t LCE due to the nearer-term cash flow potential of being able to sell concentrated spodumene to China for final processing into lithium carbonate or lithium hydroxide, whereas for brines and clays it is not possible to produce and sell such an intermediary product requiring so little processing). Spodumene concentrate’s composition and its pricing (often dependent on demand from various Chinese buyers) are somewhat variable, and are not as commoditized as final product counterparts lithium carbonate and hydroxide are. As such, spodumene concentrate pricing is less predictable and transparent, and cannot always be reliably pegged to some factor of lithium carbonate pricing. Spodumene is not one of the 9 important precious metals or critical minerals covered in our Peer Table, and cannot be easily compared to other economic study results that are dependent on lithium carbonate or hydroxide pricing, so we are unable to incorporate economic study results (and P/NAV) in our Peer Table for studies that contemplate spodumene concentrate as a final saleable product (as is the case with most lithium hard rock developer peers currently).

  

  Rendered Seymour Project layout model showing views of processing plant, mining, and water management infrastructure (Source: Green Technology Metals)

  

  Source: Google Finance, Mining Company Reports, Host Rock Capital (21 Feb 2025)

• 20 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer and copper producer Centerra Gold Inc. (TSX:CG) announced its 2024 year-end estimates for mineral reserves and mineral resources, which were largely unchanged from last year demonstrating solid replacement of reserves and resources (gold reserves down slightly, copper reserves up slightly, overall resources up slightly on back of the initial 736 koz Au resource at the Goldfield project in Nevada). CG’s resources of 26Moz AuEq (42% Au, 38% Au, rest Ag) trade at market cap/oz resource of US$54/oz AuEq ($0.085/lb CuEq), which is a 53% discount to its intermediate gold producer peer group median of $115/oz and a 25% discount to its copper producer peer group median of $0.11/lb CuEq.

• 20 Feb 2025 - Gold explorer Northgold AB (STO:NG) announced a resource update for its flagship 100%-owned Kopsa gold and copper project in the top tier jurisdiction of Finland, resulting in an 8% increase (since last year) to the deposit’s gold-equivalent resource ounces to 814.8 koz AuEq grading 1.09 g/t AuEq (0.85 g/t Au and 0.17% Cu) from only 385m of drilling (yielding an outstanding accumulation rate of 170 koz AuEq/additional m drilled, although historic drilling data was also used). The increase of 65.3Koz AuEq exceeds the company’s guidance of >20koz that was previously stated by the company in its corporate presentation for this shallow north zone. The cutoff grade remained at 0.5 g/t AuEq, and based on past announced resource estimates and grade-tonnage relationships could possibly be decreased to 0.3 g/t AuEq resulting in a ~10% increase to ounces (offset by a ~10% decrease in grade). But the real prize for investors at Kopsa could be what lies beneath, as highlighted by past geophysical surveys that the company says could lead to a deposit size in the range of 1.2-1.5 Moz AuEq in the medium-term (together with additional increases of >20koz from the shallow west target and >150koz from the south down-dip target). Northgold trades at a market cap/oz resource of US$1.51/oz AuEq - a stark 91% discount to our 62-company gold explorer peer group median of $16.6/oz AuEq. This discount does not seem justified given Kopsa alone is approaching the 1 Moz mark and comes with a dominant regional central Finland land package that already hosts several nearby drilled satellite prospects and deposits that require follow-up.

  

  Block model for Kopsa 2025 MRE, compared to previous 2024 MRE. (Source: Northgold AB)

  

  Kopsa resource growth history (Source: Northgold AB)

• 20 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer Mandalay Resources (TSX:MDN) reported its 2024 mineral reserves and resources, showing that the company more than replaced its reserves and measured and indicated (M&I) resources - increasing reserves by 9% and M&I resources by 14%, both after depletion. And near equally as important was the substantial growth in inferred resources across both of its producing mines (Bjarkdal in Sweden and Costerfield in Australia) paving the way for future reserves expansion, and resulting in a 46% increase in overall gold resources (to 2.74 Moz Au from 1.88 Moz Au). This increase in MDN’s overall resources lowers MDN’s market cap/oz resource to 86/oz AuEq (including some copper and silver resources from one of MDN’s non-core projects that increases its total resources to 3.61 Moz AuEq), which is now a 26% discount to our intermediate gold producer peer group median market cap/oz of $117/oz AuEq.

• 20 Feb 2025 - Lithium brine developer LithiumBank (TSXV:LBNK) announced a 30% increase to its overall lithium resources at its flagship 100%-owned Boardwalk project in Alberta, which included 5.195 Mt LCE measured and indicated resources grading 81.6 mg/l Li, and which paves the way for a sizeable mineral reserve in a future possible PFS. Together with the company’s secondary but much larger 21.7 Mt LCE deposit (Park Place project), LBNK hosts one of North America’s largest inventory of lithium resources. LBNK trades cheap at a P/NAV (market cap/NPV) of 0.005x based on its 2023 PEA results at our Reference lithium price of US$20,000/t LCE - a steep 87% discount to our lithium brine developer median of 0.038x, which is at least partly due to the relatively low grade of LBNK’s groundwater brine projects in Alberta vs. the higher-grade salar brines of Latin America held by many of its peers. LBNK also trades at a steep discount (of 79%) to its closer, yet more advanced, fellow Alberta groundwater brine peer E3 Metals (TSXV:ETL), which is PFS-stage, has a significantly larger measured and indicated resource size, a slightly smaller overall resource size, and trades at a P/NAV 0.024x.

• 19 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) reported its annual mineral reserves and resources statement for end of year 2024, resulting in a reported 27% increase to reserves after depletion (41% increase before accounting for depletion) and few % increase to mineral resources to 12Moz AuEq which are 93% from Au (from our previously retrieved 11.6 Moz AuEq) after depletion, demonstrating solid reserves and resources replacement. OGC operates mines in New Zealand, Philippines, and USA, and trades at a market cap/oz resources of US$182/oz AuEq - just below our intermediate gold producer mean of $186/oz AuEq and some above median of $116/oz AuEq, with this premium and large resource base of 12Moz (vs. peer group median resource base of 6.9Moz AuEq) positioning OGC as a solid take-out target for the majors looking to replace diminishing reserves and resources.

• 19 Feb 2025 - Gold (polymetallic) explorer Strickland Metals (ASX:STK) released a mineral resource estimate for it 100%-owned Rogozna project in Serbia, which was reported to be a 23% increase in the project’s gold-equivalent ounces to a reported 6.69Moz AuEq grading 1.2 g/t AuEq (0.61 g/t Au + Cu-Zn-Pb), which included a ~58% higher-grade maiden resource estimate for the Medenovan deposit reported to be 1.28Moz AuEq grading 1.9 g/t AuEq (0.77 g/t Au + Cu-Zn-Ag-Pb) but importantly the estimate still excludes the neighboring Kotlovi prospect where 40m at 2.6 g/t Au from 558m had been drilled among other intersections. Medenovan (and Kotlovi) looks to be a game-changer given its ~58% higher grade than the overall project resources, and while this new mineralization is a bit deeper, it should be just high enough grade to be amenable to underground mining methods, especially at currently high and rising gold prices. And this somewhat marginal underground-mineable grade should also give the stock good torque on a rising gold price relative to peers. STK trades at a market cap/oz resource of US$16.1/oz AuEq - a slight discount to our 61 company gold explorer peer group median market cap/oz of $16.7/oz AuEq.

  

  Kotlovi to Medenovac cross-section (Source: Strickland Metals)

• 19 Feb 2025 - Intermediate (high-grade) gold producer Lundin Gold (TSX:LUG) released its annual resource and reserve update, which resulted in a 12% increase to total resources to a new high 7.06Moz Au measured and indicated resources grading 7.17g/t Au and 5.46Moz Au inferred resources grading 5.27g/t Au, plus silver credits resulting in a 12% increase to our estimated gold-equivalent resources (at our estimated 3-month trailing average metal price) to 9.61 Moz Au. LUG’s high-grade, large-size, low-cost, high-production, and growth potential make it one of the better take-out targets for a major looking to add a globally-dominant high-grade mine to its portfolio.

• 19 Feb 2025 - Intermediate gold producer St Barbara (ASX:SBM) released its annual resource and reserves update, which increased total resources slightly to 6.9Moz Au from 6.7Moz Au, demonstrating solid resources (and reserves) replacement.

• 18 Feb 2025 - Senior gold producer Alamos Gold (NYSE:AGI) released its annual resource and reserve update, which increases total gold resources very slightly to 28.2Moz Au (from 28 Moz), demonstrating solid resources (and reserves) replacement.

• 18 Feb 2025 - Silver producer and intermediate gold producer Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) released its annual resource update, which increased total gold-equivalent resources slightly to 17.6 Moz AuEq (55% from Au and 38% from Ag) from 17.4 Moz AuEq (at our estimated 3-month trailing average metal prices) including the resources from the recent acquisition of SilverCrest and Las Chispas project in Mexico where the company also operates other mines.

• 18 Feb 2025 - Near-best-in-class gold developer Rupert Resources (TSX:RUP) announced PFS results for its flagship Ikkari project in Finland, which yielded a post-tax NPV5 of US$1.7B with an exceptional IRR of 38% and low AISC of $918/oz Au from initial capex of $575M (at a reported long term consensus gold price of $2,150/oz Au), with expected first gold pour announced to be in 2030. The study included the project’s first-ever mineral reserve of 52Mt grading 2.1g/t - representing a 10% increase in grade and a 27% decrease in total ore tonnes processed compared to the mill throughput in the 2022 PEA, which had also incorporated some additional Ikkari resources that were not converted to reserves, along with the much of the nearby Pahtvarra satellite deposit that contains additional resources of 7.8Mt grading around 2g/t Au (all of which may eventually make it into the mine plan come FS and beyond). While comparatively to 2022 PEA, capex is up slightly, NPV is down slightly, and AISC is up slightly, some of this is due to the shrinking of the overall project size (which may grow back into the size contemplated in PEA and beyond as this PFS is just a snapshot in time), and all of this should be offset by the significant de-risking step forward associated with the more-advanced PFS and maiden reserve estimate (as looks to be confirmed by the RUP share price that is up +2% today on this announcement). RUP trades at a P/NAV (market cap/NPV) of 0.66x (at our Reference gold price of $1,800/oz Au) - a seemingly justified premium (to peer group mean of 0.49x and median 0.25x) for its low-risk/top-tier jurisdiction of Finland, its relatively large overall deposit & project size, and relatively high-grade & low-strip open pit deposit.

  

  Source: Google Finance, Mining Company Reports, Host Rock Capital (18 Feb 2025)

• 18 Feb 2025 - Nickel and PGM explorer Bravo Mining (TSXV:BRVO) released an updated mineral resource estimate for its flagship Luanga project in Brazil, resulting in roughly a 58% increase in nickel-equivalent resources to 2.8 Blbs NiEq (or 7.6 Moz AuEq or 20.8 Moz PdEq, all at our estimated 3-month trailing metal prices). This project is PGM powerhouse with 72% of its resource metal value coming from Pd+Pt+Rh - with a significant 15% share of this total resource metal value coming from the highly-scarce Rh (Rhodium), amounting to 0.653 Moz Rh grading a decent 0.08-0.09 g/t Rh (Rh trades now at $4,650/oz Rh but in 2008 traded up to nearly $10,000/oz). PGM prices are still largely down in recent years, but may play catch-up to gold soon on precious metals (gold) substitution demand, which would bode well for BRVO’s high PGM exposure. BRVO is up 11% today on this news, making our daily top 40 performers list, and trades at a market cap/oz resource of US$20.8/oz PdEq (with a high Pd metal value share of 36% - excluding the significant Pt and Rh) - a seemingly justified premium for its solid PdEq resource grade reported by company to be just over 2g/t PdEq, and its high PGM share of resources (Pd+Pt+Rh making up 72% by metal value) including near-best-in-class exposure to lesser-known PGM, Rh.