Weekly Metals Mining Rundown and Peer Table - Free Edition for Week Ending 31 Jan 2025 - Gold Price Reaches New Highs and Discovery Silver (TSX:DSV) Stock Rises in an Apparent Uptrend Since Announced Acquisition of Porcupine Mine

This past week’s metals price movements include:

• Precious Metals:

  • Gold up +1.0% over past week to US$2,797/oz Au

  • Silver up +2.3% to $31.28/oz Ag

  • Platinum Group Metals:

    • Platinum up +8.0% to $1,033/oz Pt

    • Palladium up +7.4% to $1,063/oz Pd

• Base Metals:

  • Copper down -0.9% to $4.5/lb Cu

  • Nickel down -2.2% to $6.91/lb Ni

  • Cobalt down -11.3% $9.78/lb Co

• Energy Metals:

  • Uranium oxide down -0.6% to $71.35/lb U3O8

  • Lithium carbonate up +0.8% to $10,825/t LCE

This past week’s top and bottom 5 performing metals mining peer group movers include:

Top 5 performing peer groups:

1. Silver producers’ peer group median share performance was up +9.0% to median market cap/oz Ag resource of US$1.13/oz AgEq ($98/oz AuEq)

2. Silver developers’ median up +9.0% to median market cap/oz of $0.34/oz Ag ($29.5/oz AuEq) and to a median P/NAV of 0.51x (at our Reference silver price of $22/oz Ag).

3. PGM producers’ median up +6.9% to median market cap/oz of $11.9/oz PdEq ($33/oz AuEq

4. Intermediate gold producers’ median is up +5.5% to median market cap/oz of $116/oz AuEq)

5. Uranium developers’ median up +5.0% to median market cap/lb of $0.79/lb U3O8 ($28/oz AuEq) and to median P/NAV of 0.44x (at our Reference uranium price of $65/lb U3O8).

Bottom 5 performing peer groups:

1. PGM explorers’ peer group median share performance was down -6.7% to median market cap/oz resource of $2.0/oz PdEq ($5.5/oz AuEq)

2. Lithium clay developers’ median is down -5.3% to median market cap/t of $3.27/t LCEe ($0.84/oz AuEq) and to a median P/NAV of 0.014x at our Reference lithium price of $20,000/t LCE)

3. Cobalt explorers’ median is down -4.4% to median market cap/lb of $0.21/lb CoEq ($5.3/oz)

4. Cobalt producers’ median is down -3.5% to median market cap/lb of $0.24/lb CoEq ($58/oz AuEq)

5. Nickel producers’ median is down -3.3% to median market cap/lb of $0.15/lb NiEq ($55/oz AuEq).

Metals mining company announcements incorporated into this week’s Peer Table (resource updates, economic studies, changes in attributable project ownership) include:

• 27 Jan 2025 - Silver developer Discovery Silver (TSX:DSV) announced the transformational acquisition of the producing Porcupine mine complex in the Timmins gold camp from Newmont (NYSE:NEM). This deal is set to roughly double DSV’s gold-equivalent resource ounces to 31.7 Moz AuEq (from 15.3 Moz AuEq). And upon closing expected in H1/25, DSV will immediately graduate to our immediate gold producer peer group from its current silver developer peer group (NEM reported that Porcupine produced 67koz Au in most recent Q3/24). DSV reports they will pay US$425M for the gold mine ($200M cash on closing pending a cap raise, $75M in new DSV shares, with remaining $150M to be paid in cash over next 4 years). DSV’s CEO Tony Makuch has executed company-transforming deals like this before, and on a much bigger scale, after he led the bold move to take out Detour Lake for C$4.9B back in 2019 while at the helm of Kirkland Lake Gold, which turned out to be a home-run (not only because the gold price ripped afterwards, also because it helped lead to Kirkland Lake’s merging with Agnico Eagle NYSE:AEM). Our Peer Table now assumes this DSV deal will close (with a footnote) and we preemptively increase DSV’s shares outstanding to 771 M sh (from Google Finance’s current 400M sh), and add Porcupine’s whopping 12.5 moz Au M&I and 3.9 Moz inferred resource to DSV’s holdings. Based on DSV’s pro-forma share count of 771M, its market cap trades today (31 Jan) at US$815M (afer shares already traded up +55% since the announcment), or at a market cap of US$26/oz AuEq resource (proforma), which is (still) a 13% discount to DSV’s (former) silver developer peer group median of $30/oz AuEq and a much larger 77% discount to (its new) intermediate gold producer peer group median market cap/oz resource of $116/oz AuEq. The deal announcment also included results for a PEA for Porcupine, yielding growing production and an NPV5 of US$1.2B from capex of $854M (over 5 years, to grow production from current levels) at the reported analyst consensus gold price of $2,150/oz. Our Peer Table now reports a (pro-forma) combined NPV of US$1.6B for both Porcupine and Cordero at our (lower) Reference metal prices of $22/oz Ag and $1,800/oz Au, resulting in a P/NAV (pro-forma market cap / combined NPV) of 0.51x (on 31 Jan) - now in-line with our silver developer peer group median of 0.51x (at same Reference metal prices). However, at our recent spot price deck ($31/oz Ag and $2,650/oz Au), DSV’s combined-pro-forma NPV rises sharply to US$5.4B and trades (pro-forma) at corresponding P/NAV of only 0.15x, resulting in a substantial 44% discount to (DSV’s former) silver developer peer group median of 0.24x (at same recent spot metal prices) - highlighting the solid torque that DSV’s projects have on rising metal prices.

  

  DSV 1hr chart - in an apparent uptrend since announced acquisiton of Porcupine Mine

• 27 Jan 2025 - Gold explorer TDG Gold Corp (TSXV:TDG) announced a strategic investment from silver and gold developer Skeena Resource (NYSE:SKE) as part of a non-brokered financing of up to C$14.5M. Funds will help TDG advance its flagship Greater Shasta-Newberry project ("Greater Shasta Project") in the Toodoggone District, in British Columbia, Canada. According to the announced deal terms, SKE also gets TDG’s non-core Sofia property, and will own 13% of TDG (and its 1.1 Moz AuEq gold and silver Shasta deposit) following the transaction.